Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Fed Rate Hike & The Real Estate Market

This week the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percent or 25 basis points. This move comes after almost 8 years of rates near or below zero, and signals new confidence in US and global economic growth.

Despite a rough 4th quarter in 2015 spurred by uncertainty in Chinese economy and external events like terrorism; The Fed feels the time for a rate hike has come. US unemployment has held at 5% helped by steady job growth over the last few months including 211,000 new jobs in November, just short of the 12 month average of 237,000. 

The rate hike means that regional and local banks will now have to pay more for the cash that they borrow and at the end of the day this affects consumers. One reason consumers may feel the sting is that despite banks charging higher rates, they are not paying out higher rates on savings or retirement accounts. This is a trend that we have seen in Europe as well and is upsetting for who rely on bank interest to grow their money.

With the rate hike set to shake things up in the domestic and global markets, the question remains:  how will the hike affect the Real Estate industry? Often it is said that Real Estate is a Local business so, the Fed's move may seem irrelevant, but the effects may be more subtle than expected.
Fixed mortgage rates should not see a radical departure from their current place between 3.75 and 4.25 for 15 and 30 year mortgages respectably. Variable rate mortgages on the other hand will be more reactive.Variable rates are likely to rise as the rest of the short term credit sector's rates do as well. This means auto-loans and credit cards are sure to rise as banks scramble to adjust. 

Since fixed mortgages are tied to the bond market, their rates will change more slowly and real evidence of whether or not they will make a departure from their current position will only be evident after the first quarter of 2016. Despite this, savvy investors may consider refinancing soon to insure a lower rate. With the mortgage rates bound to move slowly though, home buyers will likely see no more than 3 to 4 hundredths of a percent increase in their total amortized mortgage cost.

Nervous you may have missed the boat to buy refinance? Fear not. The upcoming spring market will be a fervent one with sellers bringing their homes back on the market after the cold months and with Fed hike ramifications likely not taking effect until later in the year.



Dylan Farish is a REALTOR® with Long & Foster, Wine Connoisseur and Blogger. 

 

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